The Big Question for January

After returning from a nice, long Christmas/New Year vacation, I've been playing catch-up on emails and blogs (thank goodness for Google Reader). One of the interesting posts was Tony Karrer's "Big Question" for January. The question is "What are your predictions for Learning in 2008?" Back in October, I did a short post on the numerous amount of claims, predictions, and trends (usually displayed as a Top 10 list).

I indicated in the post back in October (and the prediction remains for 2008) that the number one trend will be an emphasis on performance improvement. We've already seen some of the shift with web 2.0 technologies and getting employees information when and where they need it. In 2008, there will be more than one learning initiative that will fail simply because it did not consider the desired performance of the individual. I believe that this also ties into a larger accountability requirement for the field. Specifically, the field will be held accountable for the claims we are making (i.e. Games will increase X; allowing employees to blog will add Y; a Wiki will result in Z; etc.). This will be the number one hurdle that informal learning technologies will face.

I think in 2007, the learning field looked like it slowed down, but in actuality it just grew in a different direction. I would agree that grown-breaking growth in formal learning slowed, but we saw tremendous potential and growth in informal learning. In order to sustain that growth, there will need to be data that supports the claims.

One other thing that I think we will see in 2008 is the release of brain-controlled programs for learning and performance improvement on tasks. These have been in the R&D stage for a few years (specifically for controlling video games, but 2008 will mark the release of this technology for the learning field.

I'm interested in reading what other predictions there are for 2008. In the end, I believe each year holds great promise for the learning field and the year will most likely be marked by controlled growth. "Controlled growth" meaning there will be some fads that come and go, but in the end, the field will be better off next year at this time.